--- title: The difference between secrets and mysteries description: Why is it so hard to predict the future? It may have something to do with the difference between secrets and mysteries. image: https://geekboss.com/hubfs/minuteman-missile-guidance-computer-1-3-1.jpg --- # The difference between secrets and mysteries [ By Matthew Stibbe ![Matthew Stibbe](https://app.hubspot.com/settings/avatar/c0fe13642b2329271b9ce0a5b41d744a) ](https://geekboss.com/blog/author/matthew-stibbe) Published 05/Nov/2017 Updated April 22 2026 ![Minuteman missile guidance computer](https://geekboss.com/hs-fs/hubfs/minuteman-missile-guidance-computer-1-3-1.jpg?width=1600&height=1000&name=minuteman-missile-guidance-computer-1-3-1.jpg) In an interesting [piece](https://www.npr.org/2011/02/05/133510910/intelligence-officials-face-hard-questions-on-egypt) on Egypt and the US intelligence community over the weekend on NPR news, General Michael Hayden tries to explain why the US intelligence community did not predict the instability. He talks about the difference between secrets and mysteries. ## Intelligence knows the difference between secrets and mysteries > To explain this, he borrows from what a CIA colleague, John McLaughlin, likes to say: There’s a difference between secrets and mysteries. “He said you can’t hold intelligence services accountable in the same way for mysteries,” Hayden says. “The broad movement of Egyptian society isn’t a secret that was hidden in somebody’s safe that somebody should have expected us to purloin. This is far more difficult to understand.” ![Minuteman missile guidance computer in the Computer History Museum](https://geekboss.com/hs-fs/hubfs/minuteman-missile-guidance-computer-1-1-1.jpg?width=800&height=600&name=minuteman-missile-guidance-computer-1-1-1.jpg) Minuteman missile guidance computer in the Computer History Museum. I took this picture in 2002. In the 60s, this was top secret. Now it’s just a mystery. ## Make the future or predict it The same sort of thinking is useful in business. You can study a market and know your products and your competitors. These are facts. You can make plans, develop new products and try to guess what your rivals will do. These are secrets. But the trends of the market, whims and fashions of customers and the impact of fundamental innovation are mysteries. Gathering intelligence is important, not just at [MI5](https://geekboss.com/blog/great-leader-lessons-from-mi5). The important thing about mysteries is not that they are unknowable but that they are unpredictable. However, that doesn’t mean you should ignore them. Good companies work hard to explore mysteries. They go cool hunting, do a/b tests, run war games, brainstorm, talk to customers and keep their ear to the ground. For example, I love how Jonathan Ive talks about [Apple’s innovation process](https://geekboss.com/blog/jonathan-ive-and-apple-design). Great companies start with a powerful insight or [big idea](https://geekboss.com/blog/big-idea), solve their mysteries and move markets and fashions themselves. **What are the mysteries in your industry? How can you explore them? Can you change a mystery into a secret or a fact? How can you create your own?** **[![How to choose an agency for your new website](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/289742/aab369e3-a371-48eb-a47f-85895833e378.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/289742/aab369e3-a371-48eb-a47f-85895833e378)** --- Share [![Share on linkedin](https://geekboss.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/GeekBoss%20theme/images/icons/linkedin.svg) ](http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://geekboss.com/blog/difference-secrets-mysteries&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin) [![Share on facebook](https://geekboss.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/GeekBoss%20theme/images/icons/facebook.svg) ](http://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=https://geekboss.com/blog/difference-secrets-mysteries&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook) ![Copy to clipboard](https://geekboss.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/GeekBoss%20theme/images/icons/copy.svg) ## Related articles ![Coffee percolating](https://geekboss.com/hs-fs/hubfs/ahmed-_5c8oss_hZc-unsplash.jpg?width=800&height=500&name=ahmed-_5c8oss_hZc-unsplash.jpg) ### [Impatience is a virtue](https://geekboss.com/blog/impatience-is-a-virtue) My colleague, Clare, gave me this title – ‘impatience is a virtue’ – to work with and this is what I came up with. Get a cup of coffee and... By Matthew Stibbe [Entrepreneurship](https://geekboss.com/blog/tag/entrepreneurship) ![Matthew Stibbe and robot at the Studio Ghibli museum](https://geekboss.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/Matthew-and-Robot-1.jpg?width=800&height=500&name=Matthew-and-Robot-1.jpg) ### [How to understand what your boss is thinking](https://geekboss.com/blog/what-your-boss-is-thinking) There are a lots of articles about how to impress a boss. This isn’t one of them. This article is about how to understand what your boss is... By Matthew Stibbe ![Sunrise over the sea](https://geekboss.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Screenshot-2021-04-16-at-17_49_47-1-1-1-1.jpg?width=800&height=500&name=Screenshot-2021-04-16-at-17_49_47-1-1-1-1.jpg) ### [How I trained myself to get up earlier](https://geekboss.com/blog/get-up-earlier) I am not what you would call a morning person. At heart, I’m a writer, for heaven’s sake! But getting up early has become really important... By Matthew Stibbe [Productivity](https://geekboss.com/blog/tag/productivity) ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Matthew Stibbe", "url" : "https://geekboss.com/blog/author/matthew-stibbe" }, "dateModified" : "2022-09-10T17:53:04.101Z", "datePublished" : "2017-11-05T12:06:15.000Z", "headline" : "The difference between secrets and mysteries", "image" : [ "https://geekboss.com/hubfs/minuteman-missile-guidance-computer-1-3-1.jpg" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://geekboss.com/blog/difference-secrets-mysteries", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://geekboss.com/hubfs/Geek-Boss-logo_Geek-Boss-logo-thin-1.png" }, "name" : "Articulate Marketing" } } ``` ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org/", "@type" : "Person", "image" : "https://www.stibbe.net/hs-fs/hubfs/IMG_0612.jpeg?width=4032&height=3024&name=IMG_0612.jpeg", "jobTitle" : "CEO", "name" : "Matthew Stibbe", "sameAs" : [ "https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthewstibbe/", "https://www.facebook.com/matthew.stibbe" ], "url" : "https://geekboss.com", "worksFor" : { "@type" : "Organization", "name" : "Articulate Marketing" } } ```